Treatments could arrive 181 years sooner

Faster discovery moves every future treatment closer. The model applies those earlier treatments to the share of disease deaths and lost healthy years that medical progress can prevent.

The estimated launch cost is $65M: $15 million to bring the act to all 50 states plus $50 million to operate the shared treatment registry for a decade.

The death and healthy-life totals include future generations. They measure the lasting benefit of finding treatments sooner, not only the people alive today.

At this setting, the model moves the discovery rate from 15 to 82.2 first treatments per year and clears today's untreated-disease queue in 80.9 years.

The arithmetic, in one line: 2.88 billion healthy years are lost to disease every year, medicine can eventually prevent 92.6% of that, and the central scenario delivers treatments 181 years sooner: 2.88B × 92.6% × 181 ≈ 483 billion healthy years. Deaths follow the same chain from 150,000 disease deaths per day.

Open every parameter, formula, and citation

Peer-archived versions: Right to Trial & FDA Upgrade Act (2025) · Continuous Evidence Generation Protocol (2025)

The death total can exceed today's world population because it sums premature deaths prevented across roughly 181 years of future generations, not people alive right now.

The 5.48× multiplier is an assumption calibrated to move discovery from 15 to 82.2 first treatments per year, not an observed effect. That is why the slider exists.

Every result is conditional on 50-state adoption producing the modeled discovery shift. Multiply the headline by your own probability that it does. Even the skeptical preset, 2× discovery, prevents 5.6B future deaths, so the case does not depend on the central estimate being right.

At the central estimate, preventing one premature death costs about $0.0071 of launch spending, roughly 636K× less than the ~$4,500 a GiveWell top charity spends per life saved. The cost scopes differ: our numerator is only the $65 million campaign and registry, with patients and payers funding the treatments themselves, while GiveWell's figure covers full program costs. Quote it as leverage, not a like-for-like charity comparison, and apply the same probability discount as everything else here.

5,000–10,000 investigational compounds have already passed Phase I safety testing, the same bar Montana's law uses. Many are off-patent or unpatentable, so at $41,000 per trial participant no company can ever recoup the cost of testing them. At $929, testing them becomes viable. The model counts nothing for unlocking this pool.

Every cheap off-patent treatment validated against a condition competes with the patented drugs treating it. The model counts zero price effects for patients or payers.

Compounds that slow aging itself would cut costs across every age-related disease at once. The model treats aging research like any other disease and counts none of those offsets.